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Spread - cotton to yarn

Business Model & Unit Economics · Spreads & pass-through

What it is

The margin between raw cotton cost and yarn realisation, which is the entire economics of a spinning mill. Cotton is typically 60-70% of yarn cost, so the spread is thin and volatile

It widens when cotton falls faster than yarn prices and compresses when the reverse happens

Impact on industries

  • A conversion spread with no pricing power on either side - cotton is set by crop and global markets, yarn by export demand and Chinese competition
  • Cotton is bought seasonally at harvest but yarn sells year-round, so mills carry large inventory at a price fixed months earlier
  • Duty exemption on imported cotton widens the accessible supply and caps the domestic price, which supports the spread
  • The same structure as sponge-iron-to-billet and HRC-to-CRC - one number defines the business, and inventory timing determines reported profit

Industries affected