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National Steel Policy 300 MT target & capex supercycle
What it is
The National Steel Policy 2017 targets 300 MT of capacity and 160 kg per capita consumption by 2030-31, implying over 200 MT of new capacity and investment estimated near Rs 10 lakh cr
Capacity rose from 97 MT in 2012-13 to 138 MT by 2017-18 and has expanded since, with roughly 15 MT added over recent quarters and more in the pipeline
Impact on industries
- Domestic demand growth of around 8% in FY26 gives the expansion a genuine home market, unlike capacity built for export in other jurisdictions
- Scale supports the fixed-cost absorption and vertical integration that make Indian steel cost-competitive globally
- Timing risk is acute - capacity is landing faster than demand in the short run, creating a temporary supply surplus and pricing pressure
- Capital intensity exposes balance sheets if demand disappoints, and most additions are BF-BOF - locking in high-emissions assets as carbon border measures take effect