← External Forces: Industry Specific (all topics)
Seasonality - agriculture (monsoon & rabi-kharif)
What it is
Tractor, seed, fertiliser and crop-input demand follows the agricultural calendar rather than the financial year. Kharif is sown with the June-September southwest monsoon and harvested from October; rabi is sown on residual moisture and harvested in spring
Monsoon quantity, distribution and timing determine sowing, yield and farm cash flow, and therefore the timing of every rural purchase decision
Impact on industries
- Creates a readable demand rhythm - tractor, fertiliser, seed and rural vehicle sales cluster around sowing and post-harvest cash release, so the season is a forecastable order book
- Irrigation coverage and reservoir levels have decoupled rabi partly from monsoon outcomes, cushioning what was once a single point of failure
- Concentrates the year into a few weeks: a delayed or poorly distributed monsoon shifts sowing, defers purchases across a whole quarter and leaves channel inventory stranded
- The exposure runs beyond agriculture into rural lending, where repayment behaviour on tractor and microfinance books tracks the same cycle