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MMTPA refining capacity roadmap to 2030
What it is
India's plan to expand refining capacity, measured in million metric tonnes per annum, from roughly 250 MMTPA toward 400+ MMTPA by 2030 through brownfield debottlenecking and new integrated complexes
Most additions are refinery-petrochemical projects rather than fuel-only refineries, and several involve foreign or upstream partners taking equity
Impact on industries
- Domestic demand growth is the justification - India is among the few large markets where transport fuel consumption is still rising, so capacity has a home market to serve
- Brownfield expansion at existing sites is cheaper and faster than greenfield, and reuses land, utilities and evacuation infrastructure already in place
- Long payback against an uncertain horizon - capacity commissioned late this decade operates into rising EV penetration and higher ethanol blending
- Capital intensity is severe, with sector capex plans near Rs 90,000 cr, and returns depend on refining margins that have already halved once this cycle