← External Forces: Trade, Geopolitics & Market Access (all topics)
Energy security & supply concentration
What it is
India imports over 85% of its crude, most of its LNG and a large share of its fertiliser, coking coal and critical minerals. Much of it moves through a small number of maritime chokepoints and originates in a handful of countries
Diversification is the stated policy answer, but it takes years and usually costs more than the concentrated supply it replaces
Impact on industries
- A single chokepoint or supplier decision can reset the cost base of refining, fertiliser, petrochemicals, power and transport simultaneously
- Strategic reserves cover weeks rather than months, so they buy negotiating time rather than genuine insulation
- Diversification into US, Russian, African and Latin American supply has genuinely widened the sourcing base since 2022
- Cheaper concentrated supply and costlier diversified supply is a standing trade-off, and policy has swung between them with the security environment